STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE CENSUS AND REAL VOLUMES IN ONE FOREST CONCESSION OF THE PERUVIAN TROPICS

Abstract

Dasometry is the branch of forest sciences that uses statistical methods to find solutions to problems related to the existence, growth and management of forests. When the Forest Law N° 29763 appears, decreed by the Peruvian State from the year 2011, the traceability or tracing of the trunk or the log coming from the forest began. At this stage, there is a noticeable difference between the census volume (standing tree) and the actual volume (tree in the storage yard), which led to penalties by the justice system. The objective of this article is to quantify this anomaly to demonstrate to forestry actors in both the private and public sectors the error that translates into costs. For this purpose, a random sample consisting of 196 trees declared by the Forestry Concessionaire Pucallpa Export SRL of Ucayali Peru and controlled by the forestry authority was taken. Dasometric calculation formulas were proposed both to find the census volume and the actual volume. The difference between one and the other was on average 2.92 m3 of wood per tree, therefore it is indicated that the morphic factor of 0.65 induces an unacceptable error so it is recommended to omit its application. To statistically justify the validity of the results, the normality of the data is checked and the t Student test is applied for paired samples, in order to verify that the difference between the two volumes is statistically significant.