APPROXIMATION OF “S” CURVES FOR THE PROJECT PLANNING CONSTRUCTION USING MODELS LOGISTICS

Abstract

One of the most used tools for project control is the Earned Value Management (EVM) method. Establishing the planned
value curve (PV), as the baseline of periodic investments in relation to which progress in construction projects is controlled,
it is very common to define this curve intuitively; what causes in many occasions that the contractors fall in breaches
during the phase of execution. This research suggests that the progress in construction projects follows typical trends related to the nature of the projects, which can be transformed into a standard S curve, elaborated from mathematical models, increasing the probabilities of success of a project, in contrast to if an intuitively developed S curve is used. From a sample of potable water, sewerage and roads projects, whose construction had already been completed, logistic models were developed for project planning in those sectors, based on the estimated budget and deadline for their execution. Subsequently, the models obtained were applied to projects in execution, showing differences between the planned progress curves with respect to the curve of the proposed model.