INFERENCES ON THE FUNCTIONING OF ECONOMICS SYSTEMS

Abstract

The functioning of a finite economic system can be modeled through an adequate vector of dichotomic random variables. Each variable measures the functioning of a component. A linear probability model is used for modeling the effect of a set of external causes on the performance of the system. It' models, by a sequence of signals, the system's reliability. By observing the signals the monitoring of the system can be made and the shock is characterized by parameters. Predictors of them are developed. The
approximate distributions of the predictors are derived. Portfolio analysis and consumer's selection of allocations illustrates the use of the model