TENDENCIAS MIGRATORIAS INTERNAS EN CUBA: UN ANÁLISIS MULTINIVEL DE CURVAS DE CRECIMIENTO

Abstract

A methodology is presented for estimating the average trends of internal migration rates in Cuban. In this paper we use data of municipal migration rates by trienniums during the period 1980-2009, a period that includes three clearly differentiated moments during the economic crisis that hit the country in the early ’90s. The proposal is based on the use of multilevel models for the longitudinal data analysis. This approach allows to assess the impact of the environmental and socio-economic contexts of the municipalities on the behavior of migratory movements in time. The results evidence the power of multilevel models to investigate not only the average behavior of the growth curves of migration rates of the studied population, but also the differences between municipalities and detection of atypical municipalities. This could be use to make recommendations for the development of differentiated policies on land management schemes.